Prediction-market prices
A Polymarket or Kalshi share pays $1 if the outcome happens, so a price of 38¢ reads as a 38% chance. Each match has three markets — home win, draw, away win. We show the market price and, in the header, the average of the two platforms.
Bookmaker odds and “fair” prices
Bookmaker odds include a margin: convert a 1X2 price set to probabilities and they add up to 102–110%, not 100%. To compare like with like we remove that margin proportionally for each bookmaker and average the result. That is the “fair” line you see next to the prediction markets. The individual bookmaker rows show the real odds you would be offered.
Odds formats
Use the selector in the header to switch between decimal, fractional, American odds and plain probability. It only changes how numbers are displayed; the underlying data is the same.
Closing prices
Once a match kicks off, prices start reacting to the game and finish at 0 or 100 when the market settles. So for played matches we show closing prices: each source’s last snapshot taken before kick-off. “How the markets called it” on a result page compares those closing prices with what actually happened.
Update times
- Prediction-market prices: every hour, with a full price history kept since March 2026.
- Bookmaker odds: every three hours, stopping at kick-off.
- Fixtures, results, tables and team news: twice a day; results are confirmed within an hour or two of full time.
When a page exists
A match page appears when Polymarket or Kalshi lists the game, usually one to two weeks before kick-off. The league calendar shows the rest of the season as plain text until then — we don’t publish empty pages for games nobody is pricing yet.
What we leave out
- Trading fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and taxes are not included in the prices shown.
- Availability depends on where you live: Polymarket and Kalshi are not open in every country, and neither are all bookmakers.
- Thinly traded markets can move a lot on small amounts; where we know the traded volume, we show it.
Found a number that looks wrong? Tell us at [email protected].
Last updated October 2026.