Arsenal
68%
Draw
20%
Leeds United
12%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Arsenal
2 — 1
Leeds UnitedArsenal wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Arsenal.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Arsenal | Arsenal | 68% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Arsenal | Arsenal | 68% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Arsenal | Arsenal | 68% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Arsenal | XDraw | 2Leeds United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.47 | 4.90 | 8.74 |
| Kalshi | 1.46 | 5.05 | 8.42 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 1.47 | 4.96 | 8.31 |
Arsenal win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
ArsenalLeeds United
Oct 10, 26
Arsenal
2-1
LeedsJan 31, 26
Leeds
0-4
ArsenalAug 23, 25
Arsenal
5-0
LeedsApr 1, 23
Arsenal
4-1
LeedsOct 16, 22
Leeds
0-1
ArsenalMay 8, 22
Arsenal
2-1
LeedsDec 18, 21
Leeds
1-4
ArsenalOct 26, 21
Arsenal
2-0
LeedsLineups
Arsenal4-2-3-1
Coach: Mikel Arteta
1David RayaG
4B. WhiteD
15E. KonsaD
6Gabriel MagalhãesD
33R. CalafioriD
41D. RiceM
49M. Lewis-SkellyM
7B. SakaM
8M. ØdegaardM
20N. MaduekeM
29K. HavertzF
Leeds3-4-2-1
Coach: D. Farke
1J. TraffordG
24J. JustinD
30N. ElvediD
5T. MuharemovićD
2J. BogleM
4E. AmpaduM
22A. TanakaM
3G. GudmundssonM
18A. StachM
19N. OkaforM
9D. Calvert-LewinF
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Arsenal won 2–1.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Arsenal was the favourite at 68% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Arsenal 68%, draw 20%, Leeds United 12%).
