Arsenal
80%
Draw
14%
Lille
6%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Arsenal
3 — 0
LilleArsenal wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Arsenal.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Arsenal | Arsenal | 81% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Arsenal | Arsenal | 79% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Arsenal | Arsenal | 78% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Arsenal | XDraw | 2Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.24 | 7.37 | 18.08 |
| Kalshi | 1.26 | 7.28 | 14.58 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 1.28 | 6.93 | 13.62 |
Sportsbook Odds22 books
= best| Bookmaker | 1Arsenal | XDraw | 2Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.26 | 6.68 | 13.40 |
 Matchbook | 1.23 | 7.20 | 17.00 |
 Winamax (DE) | 1.19 | 7.25 | 11.00 |
 Pinnacle | 1.22 | 6.75 | 14.00 |
 Betfair | 1.24 | 7.20 | 16.50 |
 William Hill | 1.20 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
 Marathon | 1.24 | 6.25 | 13.00 |
 BetOnline | 1.23 | 6.50 | 14.00 |
 888sport | 1.20 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
 BetAnySports | 1.22 | 6.57 | 13.27 |
 Betclic | 1.19 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
 Betsson | 1.20 | 6.60 | 14.50 |
 Codere | 1.22 | 6.60 | 12.00 |
 Coolbet | 1.25 | 6.60 | 14.00 |
 GTbets | 1.21 | 6.69 | 12.66 |
 LeoVegas | 1.22 | 6.25 | 12.00 |
 NordicBet | 1.21 | 6.70 | 14.50 |
PMU | 1.20 | 5.80 | 11.00 |
 Unibet (FR) | 1.18 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.24 | 6.75 | 12.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.25 | 6.75 | 12.00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.19 | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| Fair odds (average of 22, margin removed) | 1.28 | 6.93 | 13.63 |
Arsenal win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Arsenal vs Lille?
Arsenal won 3–0.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Arsenal was the favourite at 80% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Arsenal 80%, draw 14%, Lille 6%).
