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Aston Villa vs Manchester City

Saturday, October 24, 2026

Aston Villa

20%

Draw

22%

Manchester City

59%

Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).

Aston Villa

2 — 1

Manchester City

Aston Villa wins

How the markets called it

Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Aston Villa.

Source	Favourite	Result %Chance given to the result	Verdict
PolymarketFavourite: Manchester City	Manchester City	20%	✗ Upset
KalshiFavourite: Manchester City	Manchester City	20%	✗ Upset
Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Manchester City	Manchester City	20%	✗ Upset

Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price

Platform	1Aston Villa	XDraw	2Manchester City
Polymarket	5.10	4.63	1.70
Kalshi	5.10	4.64	1.70
Bookmakers (fair, margin removed)	5.08	4.61	1.71

Sportsbook Odds24 books

= best

Bookmaker	1Aston Villa	XDraw	2Manchester City
Betfair	5.40	4.70	1.64
1xBet	5.07	4.51	1.68
Pinnacle	4.99	4.38	1.65
William Hill	4.75	4.20	1.62
Marathon	5.00	4.45	1.65
BetOnline	5.00	4.40	1.65
MyBookie	4.70	4.40	1.61
888sport	4.60	4.00	1.61
BetAnySports	5.00	4.40	1.65
Betclic	4.50	4.25	1.60
Betsson	4.84	4.31	1.63
Codere	4.60	4.40	1.66
Coolbet	5.15	4.55	1.65
Everygame	5.00	4.33	1.60
GTbets	4.84	4.27	1.62
LeoVegas	4.90	4.40	1.60
NordicBet	4.80	4.35	1.62
PMU	4.50	4.10	1.55
Tipico	5.00	4.50	1.57
Unibet (FR)	4.50	4.20	1.54
Unibet (NL)	5.00	4.60	1.64
Unibet (SE)	5.00	4.60	1.64
Winamax (DE)	4.50	4.50	1.60
Winamax (FR)	4.30	4.40	1.58
Fair odds (average of 24, margin removed)	5.08	4.61	1.71