Skip to content
forecastspot
serieaFull Time

Sunday, October 25, 2026

Atalanta
48%
Draw
24%
Frosinone
29%

Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).

AtalantaAtalanta
4 — 4
FrosinoneFrosinone
Draw

How the markets called it

Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Draw.

SourceResult %Verdict
PolymarketFavourite: Atalanta24%✗ Upset
KalshiFavourite: Atalanta24%✗ Upset
Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Atalanta23%✗ Upset
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
Platform1X2
Polymarket2.094.233.49
Kalshi2.084.253.52
Bookmakers (fair, margin removed)1.964.323.87
Sportsbook Odds23 books
= best
Bookmaker1X2
Betfair
1.944.303.90
Matchbook
1.944.303.90
Unibet (SE)
1.854.203.90
Pinnacle
1.904.153.82
William Hill
1.853.903.50
Fair odds (average of 23, margin removed)1.964.323.87

Atalanta win probability over time

Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.

New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Livio Marinelli
Head to HeadLast 7 meetings
Atalanta
Frosinone
Oct 25, 26
Atalanta
4-4
Frosinone
Jan 15, 24
Atalanta
5-0
Frosinone
Aug 26, 23
Frosinone
2-1
Atalanta
Jan 20, 19
Frosinone
0-5
Atalanta
Aug 20, 18
Atalanta
4-0
Frosinone
Jan 23, 16
Frosinone
0-0
Atalanta
Aug 30, 15
Atalanta
2-0
Frosinone
Lineups
Atalanta4-2-3-1
Coach: M. Sarri
29M. CarnesecchiG
16R. BellanovaD
31T. KristensenD
40R. ObrićD
77D. ZappacostaD
13ÉdersonM
70G. GaetanoM
99E. ElmasM
17C. De KetelaereM
11J. RoweM
90N. KrstovićF
Frosinone4-2-3-1
Coach: M. Alvini
22L. PalmisaniG
20A. OyonoD
2G. CittadiniD
3G. CalvaniD
79G. BracagliaD
14G. CalòM
73P. MasiniM
7F. GhedjemisM
10R. SchmidM
17G. KvernadzeM
9A. RaimondoF
Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Atalanta vs Frosinone?

Atalanta vs Frosinone ended in a 4–4 draw.

Who was the favourite before kick-off?

Atalanta was the favourite at 48% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Atalanta 48%, draw 24%, Frosinone 29%).