Atletico Madrid
53%
Draw
25%
Manchester United
22%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Atletico Madrid
2 — 0
Manchester UnitedAtletico Madrid wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Atletico Madrid.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Atletico Madrid | Atletico Madrid | 54% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Atletico Madrid | Atletico Madrid | 53% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Atletico Madrid | Atletico Madrid | 53% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Atletico Madrid | XDraw | 2Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.86 | 4.06 | 4.63 |
| Kalshi | 1.89 | 4.08 | 4.43 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 1.90 | 4.01 | 4.43 |
Atletico Madrid win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 5 meetings
Atletico MadridManchester United
Aug 1, 26
Manchester United
2-1
Atletico MadridJul 30, 22
Atletico Madrid
1-0
Manchester UnitedJul 30, 22
Atletico Madrid
1-0
Manchester UnitedMar 15, 22
Manchester United
0-1
Atletico MadridFeb 23, 22
Atletico Madrid
1-1
Manchester UnitedFrequently Asked Questions
Who won Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
Atletico Madrid won 2–0.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Atletico Madrid was the favourite at 53% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Atletico Madrid 53%, draw 25%, Manchester United 22%).
