uclFull Time

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Bayern Munich

41%

Draw

25%

Arsenal

34%

Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).

Bayern Munich

2 — 2

Arsenal

Draw

How the markets called it

Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Draw.

Source	Favourite	Result %Chance given to the result	Verdict
PolymarketFavourite: Bayern Munich	Bayern Munich	25%	✗ Upset
KalshiFavourite: Bayern Munich	Bayern Munich	25%	✗ Upset
Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Bayern Munich	Bayern Munich	26%	✗ Upset

Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price

Platform	1Bayern Munich	XDraw	2Arsenal
Polymarket	2.48	3.94	2.91
Kalshi	2.45	3.96	2.94
Bookmakers (fair, margin removed)	2.50	3.91	2.91

Sportsbook Odds22 books

= best

Bookmaker	1Bayern Munich	XDraw	2Arsenal
Betfair	2.46	3.90	2.92
1xBet	2.47	3.83	2.86
Matchbook	2.46	3.90	2.92
Pinnacle	2.46	3.80	2.77
William Hill	2.30	3.50	2.75
Marathon	2.43	3.78	2.82
BetOnline	2.45	3.78	2.76
888sport	2.30	3.50	2.75
BetAnySports	2.45	3.78	2.76
Betclic	2.28	3.75	2.75
Betsson	2.42	3.65	2.75
Codere	2.37	3.70	2.80
Coolbet	2.45	3.84	2.81
GTbets	2.33	3.76	2.85
LeoVegas	2.33	3.65	2.75
NordicBet	2.45	3.70	2.78
PMU	2.28	3.50	2.63
Unibet (FR)	2.25	3.80	2.70
Unibet (NL)	2.43	3.85	2.85
Unibet (SE)	2.43	3.85	2.85
Winamax (DE)	2.35	3.65	2.65
Winamax (FR)	2.30	3.55	2.60
Fair odds (average of 22, margin removed)	2.50	3.91	2.91