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bundesligaFull Time

Sunday, October 11, 2026

Freiburg
59%
Draw
24%
Schalke 04
18%

Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).

FreiburgFreiburg
2 — 1
Schalke 04Schalke 04
Freiburg wins

How the markets called it

Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Freiburg.

SourceResult %Verdict
PolymarketFavourite: Freiburg59%✓ Won
KalshiFavourite: Freiburg58%✓ Won
Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Freiburg58%✓ Won
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
Platform1X2
Polymarket1.704.235.69
Kalshi1.714.215.61
Bookmakers (fair, margin removed)1.734.295.33
Sportsbook Odds20 books
= best
Bookmaker1X2
1xBet
1.714.075.44
Coolbet
1.654.405.00
Pinnacle
1.653.985.43
Betfair
1.664.205.10
William Hill
1.623.804.80
Fair odds (average of 20, margin removed)1.734.295.33

Freiburg win probability over time

Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.

Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg
Martin Petersen
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
Freiburg
Schalke 04
Oct 11, 26
SC Freiburg
2-1
FC Schalke 04
Apr 23, 23
SC Freiburg
4-0
FC Schalke 04
Oct 30, 22
FC Schalke 04
0-2
SC Freiburg
Apr 17, 21
SC Freiburg
4-0
FC Schalke 04
Dec 16, 20
FC Schalke 04
0-2
SC Freiburg
Jun 27, 20
SC Freiburg
4-0
FC Schalke 04
Dec 21, 19
FC Schalke 04
2-2
SC Freiburg
Feb 16, 19
FC Schalke 04
0-0
SC Freiburg
Lineups
SC Freiburg4-2-3-1
Coach: J. Schuster
1M. BackhausG
29P. TreuD
28M. GinterD
3P. LienhartD
33J. MakengoD
8M. EggesteinM
16Y. EngelhardtM
19J. BesteM
14Y. SuzukiM
7D. ScherhantM
31I. MatanovićF
FC Schalke 043-4-2-1
Coach: M. Muslić
1L. KariusG
4H. KuruçayD
25N. KatićD
39M. WöberD
17A. GantenbeinM
23S. El-FaouziM
13S. TanakaM
8R. GosensM
9M. SyllaM
19K. KaramanM
20J. AdamuF
Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Freiburg vs Schalke 04?

Freiburg won 2–1.

Who was the favourite before kick-off?

Freiburg was the favourite at 59% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Freiburg 59%, draw 24%, Schalke 04 18%).