Genoa
28%
Draw
30%
Fiorentina
42%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Genoa
2 — 1
FiorentinaGenoa wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Genoa.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Fiorentina | Fiorentina | 29% | ✗ Upset |
 KalshiFavourite: Fiorentina | Fiorentina | 28% | ✗ Upset |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Fiorentina | Fiorentina | 29% | ✗ Upset |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Genoa | XDraw | 2Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3.49 | 3.37 | 2.40 |
| Kalshi | 3.57 | 3.33 | 2.38 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 3.44 | 3.41 | 2.40 |
Genoa win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
GenoaFiorentina
Oct 10, 26
Genoa
2-1
FiorentinaMay 10, 26
Fiorentina
0-0
GenoaNov 9, 25
Genoa
2-2
FiorentinaFeb 2, 25
Fiorentina
2-1
GenoaOct 31, 24
Genoa
0-1
FiorentinaApr 15, 24
Fiorentina
1-1
GenoaAug 19, 23
Genoa
1-4
FiorentinaJan 17, 22
Fiorentina
6-0
GenoaLineups
Genoa3-4-2-1
Coach: D. De Rossi
1J. BijlowG
34S. OtoaD
5L. ØstigårdD
22J. VásquezD
3K. EhizibueM
32M. FrendrupM
25H. TraorèM
77M. EllertssonM
10Junior MessiasM
92S. El ShaarawyM
18M. OsmajićF
Fiorentina4-2-3-1
Coach: P. Vanoli
43David de GeaG
20Álex JiménezD
3R. DrăgușinD
6L. RanieriD
21ValdeD
27C. NdourM
44N. FagioliM
30Franco MastantuonoM
42C. Inao OulaïM
29W. GnontoM
23BetoF
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Genoa won 2–1.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Fiorentina was the favourite at 42% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Genoa 28%, draw 30%, Fiorentina 42%).
