Hoffenheim
49%
Draw
23%
Beşiktaş
28%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Hoffenheim
2 — 3
BeşiktaşBeşiktaş wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Beşiktaş.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Hoffenheim | Hoffenheim | 27% | ✗ Upset |
 KalshiFavourite: Hoffenheim | Hoffenheim | 28% | ✗ Upset |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Hoffenheim | Hoffenheim | 28% | ✗ Upset |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Hoffenheim | XDraw | 2Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2.03 | 4.28 | 3.65 |
| Kalshi | 2.02 | 4.39 | 3.61 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 2.07 | 4.18 | 3.60 |
Hoffenheim win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş won 3–2.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Hoffenheim was the favourite at 49% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Hoffenheim 49%, draw 23%, Beşiktaş 28%).
