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Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV

Saturday, October 10, 2026

Hoffenheim
68%
Draw
18%
Hamburger SV
14%

Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).

HoffenheimHoffenheim
2 — 3
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
Hamburger SV wins

How the markets called it

Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Hamburger SV.

SourceResult %Verdict
PolymarketFavourite: Hoffenheim13%✗ Upset
KalshiFavourite: Hoffenheim14%✗ Upset
Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Hoffenheim14%✗ Upset
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
Platform1X2
Polymarket1.475.437.45
Kalshi1.465.677.28
Bookmakers (fair, margin removed)1.485.397.27

Hoffenheim win probability over time

Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.

Prezero Arena, Sinsheim
Matchday 5
Harm Osmers
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Oct 10, 26
1899 Hoffenheim
2-3
Hamburger SV
Apr 25, 26
Hamburger SV
1-2
1899 Hoffenheim
Dec 13, 25
1899 Hoffenheim
4-1
Hamburger SV
Apr 14, 18
1899 Hoffenheim
2-0
Hamburger SV
Nov 26, 17
Hamburger SV
3-0
1899 Hoffenheim
Apr 8, 17
Hamburger SV
2-1
1899 Hoffenheim
Nov 20, 16
1899 Hoffenheim
2-2
Hamburger SV
Mar 19, 16
Hamburger SV
1-3
1899 Hoffenheim
Lineups
1899 Hoffenheim4-2-3-1
Coach: C. Ilzer
1O. BaumannG
34V. CoufalD
5O. KabakD
28K. MachidaD
13BernardoD
7L. AvdullahuM
18W. BurgerM
20B. ContéM
11F. AsllaniM
14A. DaghimM
19T. LemperleF
Hamburger SV3-4-2-1
Coach: M. Polzin
1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
24N. CapaldoD
33S. BornauwD
17W. OmariD
3D. Møller WolfeM
6A. Sambi LokongaM
21N. RembergM
37L. LemkeM
20Fábio VieiraM
5M. AdelineM
15Y. PoulsenF
Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?

Hamburger SV won 3–2.

Who was the favourite before kick-off?

Hoffenheim was the favourite at 68% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Hoffenheim 68%, draw 18%, Hamburger SV 14%).