Hoffenheim
48%
Draw
24%
Lyon
29%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Hoffenheim
3 — 0
LyonHoffenheim wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Hoffenheim.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Hoffenheim | Hoffenheim | 48% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Hoffenheim | Hoffenheim | 48% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Hoffenheim | Hoffenheim | 47% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Hoffenheim | XDraw | 2Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2.07 | 4.28 | 3.53 |
| Kalshi | 2.10 | 4.21 | 3.48 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 2.12 | 4.15 | 3.49 |
Hoffenheim win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Hoffenheim vs Lyon?
Hoffenheim won 3–0.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Hoffenheim was the favourite at 48% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Hoffenheim 48%, draw 24%, Lyon 29%).
