Leeds United
37%
Draw
28%
Manchester United
35%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Leeds United
1 — 1
Manchester UnitedDraw
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Draw.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Leeds United | Leeds United | 28% | ✗ Upset |
 KalshiFavourite: Leeds United | Leeds United | 27% | ✗ Upset |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Leeds United | Leeds United | 28% | ✗ Upset |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Leeds United | XDraw | 2Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2.65 | 3.62 | 2.88 |
| Kalshi | 2.68 | 3.64 | 2.83 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 2.66 | 3.62 | 2.87 |
Leeds United win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
Leeds UnitedManchester United
Oct 18, 26
Leeds
1-1
Manchester UnitedAug 12, 26
Manchester United
1-1
LeedsApr 13, 26
Manchester United
1-2
LeedsJan 4, 26
Leeds
1-1
Manchester UnitedJul 19, 25
Manchester United
0-0
LeedsJul 12, 23
Manchester United
2-0
LeedsFeb 12, 23
Leeds
0-2
Manchester UnitedFeb 8, 23
Manchester United
2-2
LeedsLineups
Leeds3-4-2-1
Coach: D. Farke
1J. TraffordG
24J. JustinD
30N. ElvediD
5T. MuharemovićD
2J. BogleM
4E. AmpaduM
22A. TanakaM
3G. GudmundssonM
18A. StachM
19N. OkaforM
9D. Calvert-LewinF
Manchester United4-2-3-1
Coach: M. Carrick
1S. LammensG
15L. YoroD
5H. MaguireD
6Lisandro MartínezD
2Diogo DalotD
17Andrey SantosM
20C. BalebaM
16A. DialloM
18Y. TielemansM
8Bruno FernandesM
19B. MbeumoF
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Leeds United vs Manchester United?
Leeds United vs Manchester United ended in a 1–1 draw.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Leeds United was the favourite at 37% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Leeds United 37%, draw 28%, Manchester United 35%).
