Mainz
31%
Draw
25%
Bayer Leverkusen
44%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Mainz
3 — 4
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Bayer Leverkusen.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Bayer Leverkusen | Bayer Leverkusen | 44% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Bayer Leverkusen | Bayer Leverkusen | 45% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Bayer Leverkusen | Bayer Leverkusen | 44% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Mainz | XDraw | 2Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3.26 | 3.90 | 2.29 |
| Kalshi | 3.26 | 4.04 | 2.24 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 3.24 | 3.94 | 2.28 |
Mainz win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
MainzBayer Leverkusen
Oct 10, 26
FSV Mainz 05
3-4
Bayer LeverkusenFeb 28, 26
Bayer Leverkusen
1-1
FSV Mainz 05Oct 18, 25
FSV Mainz 05
3-4
Bayer LeverkusenMay 17, 25
FSV Mainz 05
2-2
Bayer LeverkusenJan 14, 25
Bayer Leverkusen
1-0
FSV Mainz 05Feb 23, 24
Bayer Leverkusen
2-1
FSV Mainz 05Sep 30, 23
FSV Mainz 05
0-3
Bayer LeverkusenFeb 19, 23
Bayer Leverkusen
2-3
FSV Mainz 05Lineups
FSV Mainz 053-5-2
Coach: U. Fischer
1A. SchwolowG
4S. PoschD
3F. GruberD
48K. PotulskiD
19A. CaciM
5E. MartelM
6K. SanoM
10N. AmiriM
2P. MweneM
9P. TietzF
23S. BeckerF
Bayer Leverkusen4-2-3-1
Coach: Carles Martínez
1M. FlekkenG
4J. QuansahD
12E. TapsobaD
2F. MedinaD
3Miguel GutiérrezD
8R. AndrichM
24Aleix GarcíaM
19M. DiabyM
30I. MazaM
9Afonso MoreiraM
14P. SchickF
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen won 4–3.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Bayer Leverkusen was the favourite at 44% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Mainz 31%, draw 25%, Bayer Leverkusen 44%).
