Mainz
56%
Draw
23%
Werder Bremen
20%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Mainz
2 — 3
Werder BremenWerder Bremen wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Werder Bremen.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Mainz | Mainz | 20% | ✗ Upset |
 KalshiFavourite: Mainz | Mainz | 20% | ✗ Upset |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Mainz | Mainz | 21% | ✗ Upset |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Mainz | XDraw | 2Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.78 | 4.28 | 4.90 |
| Kalshi | 1.76 | 4.37 | 4.90 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 1.79 | 4.35 | 4.70 |
Sportsbook Odds22 books
= best| Bookmaker | 1Mainz | XDraw | 2Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
 Betfair | 1.76 | 4.30 | 4.80 |
 1xBet | 1.75 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
 Pinnacle | 1.71 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
 William Hill | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
 Marathon | 1.70 | 4.30 | 4.50 |
 BetOnline | 1.70 | 4.22 | 4.75 |
 888sport | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
 Betclic | 1.66 | 3.98 | 4.25 |
 Betsson | 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
 Codere | 1.72 | 4.10 | 4.40 |
 Coolbet | 1.72 | 4.15 | 4.70 |
 Everygame | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
 GTbets | 1.68 | 4.23 | 4.32 |
 LeoVegas | 1.66 | 3.90 | 4.30 |
 NordicBet | 1.68 | 4.15 | 4.50 |
PMU | 1.64 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
 Tipico | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
 Unibet (FR) | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.71 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.74 | 4.25 | 4.70 |
 Winamax (DE) | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.66 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Fair odds (average of 22, margin removed) | 1.79 | 4.35 | 4.70 |
Mainz win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
MainzWerder Bremen
Oct 24, 26
FSV Mainz 05
2-3
Werder BremenMar 15, 26
Werder Bremen
0-2
FSV Mainz 05Nov 1, 25
FSV Mainz 05
1-1
Werder BremenJan 31, 25
Werder Bremen
1-0
FSV Mainz 05Sep 15, 24
FSV Mainz 05
1-2
Werder BremenFeb 3, 24
FSV Mainz 05
0-1
Werder BremenSep 2, 23
Werder Bremen
4-0
FSV Mainz 05Apr 8, 23
FSV Mainz 05
2-2
Werder BremenLineups
FSV Mainz 053-5-2
Coach: U. Fischer
1A. SchwolowG
21D. da CostaD
4S. PoschD
48K. PotulskiD
19A. CaciM
7Lee Jae-SungM
6K. SanoM
10N. AmiriM
2P. MweneM
23S. BeckerF
9P. TietzF
Werder Bremen4-2-3-1
Coach: D. Thioune
1K. HeinG
13ArthurD
5A. PieperD
32M. FriedlD
2O. DemanD
15L. ReisM
44Y. RegeerM
8M. WeiserM
20Chuky San JoséM
17M. GrüllM
10N. FüllkrugF
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen won 3–2.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Mainz was the favourite at 56% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Mainz 56%, draw 23%, Werder Bremen 20%).
