Manchester City
85%
Draw
9%
AEK Athens
6%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Manchester City
5 — 1
AEK AthensManchester City wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Manchester City.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Manchester City | Manchester City | 85% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Manchester City | Manchester City | 85% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Manchester City | Manchester City | 84% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Manchester City | XDraw | 2AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.18 | 10.49 | 17.36 |
| Kalshi | 1.18 | 11.11 | 16.67 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 1.20 | 9.59 | 16.84 |
Sportsbook Odds22 books
= best| Bookmaker | 1Manchester City | XDraw | 2AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.19 | 9.65 | 14.40 |
 Unibet (NL) | 1.13 | 10.50 | 21.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.14 | 10.50 | 21.00 |
 Pinnacle | 1.16 | 8.75 | 17.00 |
 Betfair | 1.17 | 10.00 | 19.50 |
 William Hill | 1.14 | 9.00 | 13.00 |
 Marathon | 1.17 | 9.40 | 14.00 |
 BetOnline | 1.14 | 9.50 | 19.50 |
 888sport | 1.14 | 9.00 | 13.00 |
 BetAnySports | 1.14 | 9.50 | 19.50 |
 Betclic | 1.13 | 8.00 | 13.00 |
 Betsson | 1.13 | 9.20 | 18.00 |
 Codere | 1.16 | 8.60 | 15.00 |
 Coolbet | 1.16 | 9.25 | 19.00 |
 GTbets | 1.11 | 9.02 | 14.22 |
 LeoVegas | 1.12 | 9.50 | 17.00 |
 Matchbook | 1.17 | 10.00 | 18.50 |
 NordicBet | 1.13 | 9.40 | 18.50 |
PMU | 1.10 | 8.50 | 15.00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.09 | 8.50 | 16.00 |
 Winamax (DE) | 1.14 | 8.50 | 13.50 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.13 | 7.75 | 12.50 |
| Fair odds (average of 22, margin removed) | 1.20 | 9.59 | 16.83 |
Manchester City win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Manchester City vs AEK Athens?
Manchester City won 5–1.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Manchester City was the favourite at 85% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Manchester City 85%, draw 9%, AEK Athens 6%).
