Manchester City
50%
Draw
22%
PSG
28%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Manchester City
2 — 4
PSGPSG wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: PSG.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Manchester City | Manchester City | 27% | ✗ Upset |
 KalshiFavourite: Manchester City | Manchester City | 28% | ✗ Upset |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Manchester City | Manchester City | 29% | ✗ Upset |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Manchester City | XDraw | 2PSG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.99 | 4.47 | 3.65 |
| Kalshi | 2.02 | 4.48 | 3.55 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 2.08 | 4.32 | 3.48 |
Manchester City win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 7 meetings
Manchester CityPSG
Jan 22, 25
Paris Saint Germain
4-2
Manchester CityNov 24, 21
Manchester City
2-1
Paris Saint GermainSep 28, 21
Paris Saint Germain
2-0
Manchester CityMay 4, 21
Manchester City
2-0
Paris Saint GermainApr 28, 21
Paris Saint Germain
1-2
Manchester CityApr 12, 16
Manchester City
1-0
Paris Saint GermainApr 6, 16
Paris Saint Germain
2-2
Manchester CityFrequently Asked Questions
Who won Manchester City vs PSG?
PSG won 4–2.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Manchester City was the favourite at 50% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Manchester City 50%, draw 22%, PSG 28%).
