Manchester United
30%
Draw
25%
Manchester City
46%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Manchester United
0 — 1
Manchester CityManchester City wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Manchester City.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiFavourite: Manchester City | Manchester City | 46% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Manchester City | Manchester City | 45% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds
| Platform | 1Manchester United | XDraw | 2Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 3.37 | 4.04 | 2.20 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 3.36 | 4.03 | 2.20 |
Sportsbook Odds12 books
= best| Bookmaker | 1Manchester United | XDraw | 2Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
 Betfair | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.18 |
 1xBet | 3.27 | 3.96 | 2.19 |
 Pinnacle | 3.12 | 3.94 | 2.10 |
 William Hill | 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
 Marathon | 3.22 | 3.90 | 2.15 |
 MyBookie | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.08 |
 888sport | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
 Betclic | 3.07 | 3.58 | 2.03 |
 Tipico | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
 Unibet (FR) | 3.00 | 3.50 | 1.98 |
 Winamax (DE) | 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.80 | 3.45 | 1.94 |
| Fair odds (average of 12, margin removed) | 3.31 | 4.00 | 2.24 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Manchester City won 1–0.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Manchester City was the favourite at 46% on Kalshi (closing prices: Manchester United 30%, draw 25%, Manchester City 46%).
