Newcastle
42%
Draw
26%
Aston Villa
32%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Newcastle
0 — 1
Aston VillaAston Villa wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Aston Villa.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Newcastle | Newcastle | 32% | ✗ Upset |
 KalshiFavourite: Newcastle | Newcastle | 33% | ✗ Upset |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Newcastle | Newcastle | 33% | ✗ Upset |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Newcastle | XDraw | 2Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2.34 | 3.90 | 3.16 |
| Kalshi | 2.41 | 3.88 | 3.06 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 2.44 | 3.85 | 3.02 |
Newcastle win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
NewcastleAston Villa
Feb 14, 26
Aston Villa
1-3
NewcastleJan 25, 26
Newcastle
0-2
Aston VillaAug 16, 25
Aston Villa
0-0
NewcastleApr 19, 25
Aston Villa
4-1
NewcastleDec 26, 24
Newcastle
3-0
Aston VillaJan 30, 24
Aston Villa
1-3
NewcastleAug 12, 23
Newcastle
5-1
Aston VillaJul 23, 23
Newcastle
3-3
Aston VillaLineups
Newcastle4-2-3-1
Coach: M. Jaissle
21L. HorníčekG
67L. MileyD
12M. ThiawD
4S. BotmanD
3L. HallD
6Nico GonzálezM
7JoelintonM
20M. Fernandez-PardoM
28J. WillockM
11H. BarnesM
9Y. WissaF
Aston Villa4-2-3-1
Coach: Unai Emery
1Z. SuzukiG
2M. CashD
3V. LindelöfD
5T. MingsD
29A. Wan-BissakaD
8B. KamaraM
35João GomesM
47Alysson EdwardM
44J. ManzambiM
10E. BuendíaM
11N. JacksonF
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa won 1–0.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Newcastle was the favourite at 42% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Newcastle 42%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 32%).
