Real Madrid
79%
Draw
13%
RB Leipzig
9%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Real Madrid
4 — 1
RB LeipzigReal Madrid wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Real Madrid.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 79% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 78% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 77% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Real Madrid | XDraw | 2RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.26 | 8.04 | 11.82 |
| Kalshi | 1.28 | 7.77 | 11.22 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 1.29 | 7.54 | 10.54 |
Sportsbook Odds22 books
= best| Bookmaker | 1Real Madrid | XDraw | 2RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|---|
 Betfair | 1.26 | 7.60 | 12.50 |
 1xBet | 1.27 | 7.50 | 10.60 |
 Matchbook | 1.26 | 7.60 | 12.00 |
 Pinnacle | 1.23 | 7.18 | 10.98 |
 William Hill | 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.00 |
 Marathon | 1.25 | 7.40 | 10.50 |
 BetOnline | 1.25 | 7.20 | 10.70 |
 888sport | 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.00 |
 BetAnySports | 1.25 | 7.05 | 9.90 |
 Betclic | 1.20 | 7.00 | 10.00 |
 Betsson | 1.22 | 7.10 | 10.50 |
 Codere | 1.25 | 7.40 | 8.80 |
 Coolbet | 1.25 | 7.51 | 11.00 |
 GTbets | 1.23 | 7.20 | 9.48 |
 LeoVegas | 1.23 | 6.75 | 9.50 |
 NordicBet | 1.23 | 7.20 | 11.00 |
PMU | 1.21 | 6.40 | 8.50 |
 Unibet (FR) | 1.18 | 7.50 | 10.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.26 | 7.50 | 10.50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.26 | 7.50 | 10.50 |
 Winamax (DE) | 1.21 | 7.25 | 9.00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.19 | 7.25 | 8.75 |
| Fair odds (average of 22, margin removed) | 1.29 | 7.53 | 10.54 |
Real Madrid win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 4 meetings
Real MadridRB Leipzig
Mar 6, 24
Real Madrid
1-1
RB LeipzigFeb 13, 24
RB Leipzig
0-1
Real MadridOct 25, 22
RB Leipzig
3-2
Real MadridSep 14, 22
Real Madrid
2-0
RB LeipzigFrequently Asked Questions
Who won Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
Real Madrid won 4–1.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Real Madrid was the favourite at 79% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Real Madrid 79%, draw 13%, RB Leipzig 9%).
