Roma
25%
Draw
24%
Real Madrid
51%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Roma
3 — 4
Real MadridReal Madrid wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Real Madrid.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 50% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 51% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 49% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Roma | XDraw | 2Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3.94 | 4.10 | 1.99 |
| Kalshi | 3.92 | 4.25 | 1.96 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 3.75 | 4.16 | 2.03 |
Roma win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 5 meetings
RomaReal Madrid
Nov 27, 18
AS Roma
0-2
Real MadridSep 19, 18
Real Madrid
3-0
AS RomaAug 8, 18
Real Madrid
2-1
AS RomaMar 8, 16
Real Madrid
2-0
AS RomaFeb 17, 16
AS Roma
0-2
Real MadridFrequently Asked Questions
Who won Roma vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid won 4–3.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Real Madrid was the favourite at 51% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Roma 25%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 51%).
