Schalke 04
33%
Draw
28%
Mainz
40%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Schalke 04
0 — 1
MainzMainz wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Mainz.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Mainz | Mainz | 40% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Mainz | Mainz | 40% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Mainz | Mainz | 42% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Schalke 04 | XDraw | 2Mainz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3.09 | 3.65 | 2.48 |
| Kalshi | 3.06 | 3.61 | 2.53 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 3.18 | 3.78 | 2.38 |
Sportsbook Odds23 books
= best| Bookmaker | 1Schalke 04 | XDraw | 2Mainz |
|---|---|---|---|
 Betfair | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.34 |
 1xBet | 3.16 | 3.67 | 2.34 |
 Matchbook | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.34 |
 Unibet (SE) | 3.15 | 3.80 | 2.28 |
 Pinnacle | 3.13 | 3.60 | 2.29 |
 William Hill | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
 Marathon | 3.08 | 3.58 | 2.28 |
 BetOnline | 3.09 | 3.62 | 2.30 |
 888sport | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
 Betclic | 2.88 | 3.58 | 2.25 |
 Betsson | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.25 |
 Codere | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
 Coolbet | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.32 |
 Everygame | 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
 GTbets | 3.00 | 3.62 | 2.27 |
 LeoVegas | 2.95 | 3.55 | 2.15 |
 NordicBet | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.25 |
PMU | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.14 |
 Tipico | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.10 | 3.75 | 2.23 |
 Winamax (DE) | 2.85 | 3.65 | 2.25 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.80 | 3.55 | 2.20 |
| Fair odds (average of 23, margin removed) | 3.18 | 3.78 | 2.38 |
Schalke 04 win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
Schalke 04Mainz
Oct 17, 26
FC Schalke 04
0-1
FSV Mainz 05May 5, 23
FSV Mainz 05
2-3
FC Schalke 04Nov 9, 22
FC Schalke 04
1-0
FSV Mainz 05Mar 5, 21
FC Schalke 04
0-0
FSV Mainz 05Nov 7, 20
FSV Mainz 05
2-2
FC Schalke 04Feb 16, 20
FSV Mainz 05
0-0
FC Schalke 04Sep 20, 19
FC Schalke 04
2-1
FSV Mainz 05Feb 23, 19
FSV Mainz 05
3-0
FC Schalke 04Lineups
FC Schalke 043-4-2-1
Coach: M. Muslić
1L. KariusG
5T. BeckerD
25N. KatićD
4H. KuruçayD
17A. GantenbeinM
23S. El-FaouziM
13S. TanakaM
8R. GosensM
19K. KaramanM
24A. AouchicheM
10E. DžekoF
FSV Mainz 053-5-2
Coach: U. Fischer
1A. SchwolowG
21D. da CostaD
4S. PoschD
48K. PotulskiD
19A. CaciM
10N. AmiriM
6K. SanoM
7Lee Jae-SungM
2P. MweneM
23S. BeckerF
9P. TietzF
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Schalke 04 vs Mainz?
Mainz won 1–0.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Mainz was the favourite at 40% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Schalke 04 33%, draw 28%, Mainz 40%).
