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Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Sporting CP
74%
Draw
16%
LASK
10%

Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).

Sporting CPSporting CP
2 — 3
LASKLASK
LASK wins

How the markets called it

Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: LASK.

SourceResult %Verdict
PolymarketFavourite: Sporting CP10%✗ Upset
KalshiFavourite: Sporting CP10%✗ Upset
Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Sporting CP12%✗ Upset
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
Platform1X2
Polymarket1.356.499.57
Kalshi1.356.3110.10
Bookmakers (fair, margin removed)1.396.188.45
Sportsbook Odds22 books
= best
Bookmaker1X2
Betfair
1.346.209.80
1xBet
1.375.948.35
Coolbet
1.346.308.50
Matchbook
1.346.209.80
Pinnacle
1.326.008.76
Fair odds (average of 22, margin removed)1.396.188.45

Sporting CP win probability over time

Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.

Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon
Nick Walsh
Head to HeadLast 3 meetings
Sporting CP
LASK
Oct 1, 20
Sporting CP
1-4
Lask Linz
Dec 12, 19
Lask Linz
3-0
Sporting CP
Oct 3, 19
Sporting CP
2-1
Lask Linz
Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Sporting CP vs LASK?

LASK won 3–2.

Who was the favourite before kick-off?

Sporting CP was the favourite at 74% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Sporting CP 74%, draw 16%, LASK 10%).