ligue1Full Time

Troyes vs Marseille

Sunday, October 11, 2026

Troyes

26%

Draw

27%

Marseille

47%

Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).

Troyes

0 — 2

Marseille

Marseille wins

How the markets called it

Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Marseille.

Source	Favourite	Result %Chance given to the result	Verdict
PolymarketFavourite: Marseille	Marseille	47%	✓ Favourite won Won
KalshiFavourite: Marseille	Marseille	48%	✓ Favourite won Won
Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Marseille	Marseille	47%	✓ Favourite won Won

Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price

Platform	1Troyes	XDraw	2Marseille
Polymarket	3.79	3.79	2.12
Kalshi	3.89	3.74	2.10
Bookmakers (fair, margin removed)	3.70	3.84	2.13

Sportsbook Odds22 books

= best

Bookmaker	1Troyes	XDraw	2Marseille
Betfair	3.75	3.70	2.12
LeoVegas	3.60	3.90	2.02
Unibet (SE)	3.60	3.90	2.02
Pinnacle	3.61	3.64	2.10
William Hill	3.40	3.40	2.00
Marathon	3.68	3.70	2.04
BetOnline	3.53	3.62	2.10
888sport	3.40	3.40	2.00
1xBet	3.74	3.76	2.07
Betclic	3.50	3.60	2.00
Betsson	3.50	3.55	2.02
Codere	3.40	3.65	2.07
Coolbet	3.71	3.70	2.04
Everygame	3.45	3.50	2.05
GTbets	3.47	3.66	1.98
NordicBet	3.50	3.55	2.02
PMU	3.40	3.65	1.94
Tipico	3.50	3.60	1.97
Unibet (FR)	3.50	3.70	1.92
Unibet (NL)	3.50	3.75	2.00
Winamax (DE)	3.30	3.70	2.00
Winamax (FR)	3.25	3.65	1.98
Fair odds (average of 22, margin removed)	3.70	3.84	2.13