Union Berlin
39%
Draw
26%
Elversberg
35%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Union Berlin
1 — 0
ElversbergUnion Berlin wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Union Berlin.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Union Berlin | Union Berlin | 39% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Union Berlin | Union Berlin | 39% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Union Berlin | Union Berlin | 39% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Union Berlin | XDraw | 2Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2.58 | 3.75 | 2.88 |
| Kalshi | 2.56 | 3.85 | 2.86 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 2.56 | 3.77 | 2.90 |
Union Berlin win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 1 meetings
Union BerlinElversberg
Oct 10, 26
Union Berlin
1-0
SV ElversbergLineups
Union Berlin4-1-4-1
Coach: M. Lustrinelli
1F. RønnowG
19J. HabererD
4Z. Van Den BoschD
2F. UduokhaiD
15T. RotheD
8R. KhediraM
13A. SchäferM
11Jeong Woo-YeongM
30K. ImeriM
20M. AebischerM
21T. SkarkeF
SV Elversberg4-2-3-1
Coach: V. Wagner
20N. KristofG
26L. SirchD
19L. PinckertD
31M. RohrD
21L. GüntherD
43F. KeidelM
8Ł. PorębaM
25L. PetkovM
10Noah DarvichM
29T. ZimmerschiedM
9N. FutkeuF
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Union Berlin vs Elversberg?
Union Berlin won 1–0.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Union Berlin was the favourite at 39% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Union Berlin 39%, draw 26%, Elversberg 35%).
