Union Saint-Gilloise
39%
Draw
26%
Real Sociedad
36%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Union Saint-Gilloise
1 — 1
Real SociedadDraw
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Draw.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Union Saint-Gilloise | Union Saint-Gilloise | 26% | ✗ Upset |
 KalshiFavourite: Union Saint-Gilloise | Union Saint-Gilloise | 26% | ✗ Upset |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Union Saint-Gilloise | Union Saint-Gilloise | 26% | ✗ Upset |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Union Saint-Gilloise | XDraw | 2Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2.58 | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| Kalshi | 2.59 | 3.88 | 2.81 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 2.56 | 3.83 | 2.88 |
Union Saint-Gilloise win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad ended in a 1–1 draw.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Union Saint-Gilloise was the favourite at 39% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Union Saint-Gilloise 39%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad 36%).
