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Saturday, October 31, 2026

Wolves
62%
Draw
21%
Cardiff City
17%

Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).

WolvesWolves
3 — 0
Cardiff CityCardiff City
Wolves wins

How the markets called it

Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Wolves.

SourceResult %Verdict
PolymarketFavourite: Wolves61%✓ Won
KalshiFavourite: Wolves62%✓ Won
Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Wolves60%✓ Won
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
Platform1X2
Polymarket1.644.635.69
Kalshi1.604.815.94
Bookmakers (fair, margin removed)1.674.685.29
Sportsbook Odds22 books
= best
Bookmaker1X2
Betfair
1.634.705.50
LeoVegas
1.654.404.90
Matchbook
1.624.705.60
Pinnacle
1.594.605.35
William Hill
1.574.205.00
Fair odds (average of 22, margin removed)1.674.685.29

Wolves win probability over time

Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.

Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton
Josh Smith
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
Wolves
Cardiff City
Oct 31, 26
Wolves
3-0
Cardiff
Mar 2, 19
Wolves
2-0
Cardiff
Nov 30, 18
Cardiff
2-1
Wolves
Apr 6, 18
Cardiff
0-1
Wolves
Aug 19, 17
Wolves
1-2
Cardiff
Apr 1, 17
Wolves
3-1
Cardiff
Dec 13, 16
Cardiff
2-1
Wolves
Jan 16, 16
Wolves
1-3
Cardiff
Lineups
Wolves4-2-3-1
Coach: César Peixoto
1José SáG
2K. TrippierD
15Y. MosqueraD
37L. KrejčíD
3Hugo BuenoD
7AndréM
5M. MunetsiM
28Fer LópezM
8J. JamesM
19R. SaïdM
10A. ArmstrongF
Cardiff4-2-3-1
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy
1N. TrottG
38P. NgD
2W. FishD
3J. BaganD
23C. ScanlonD
27J. ColwillM
18A. RobertsonM
11O. TannerM
8J. MoylanM
16C. WillockM
9Y. SalechF
Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Wolves vs Cardiff City?

Wolves won 3–0.

Who was the favourite before kick-off?

Wolves was the favourite at 62% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Wolves 62%, draw 21%, Cardiff City 17%).