Alavés
21%
Draw
26%
Atletico Madrid
54%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Alavés
1 — 2
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Atletico Madrid.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Atletico Madrid | Atletico Madrid | 54% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Atletico Madrid | Atletico Madrid | 54% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Atletico Madrid | Atletico Madrid | 53% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Alavés | XDraw | 2Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 4.85 | 3.90 | 1.86 |
| Kalshi | 4.86 | 3.92 | 1.85 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 4.70 | 3.92 | 1.88 |
Alavés win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
AlavésAtletico Madrid
Oct 10, 26
Alaves
1-2
Atletico MadridJan 18, 26
Atletico Madrid
1-0
AlavesAug 30, 25
Alaves
1-1
Atletico MadridMay 3, 25
Alaves
0-0
Atletico MadridNov 23, 24
Atletico Madrid
2-1
AlavesApr 21, 24
Alaves
2-0
Atletico MadridOct 29, 23
Atletico Madrid
2-1
AlavesApr 2, 22
Atletico Madrid
4-1
AlavesLineups
Alaves3-5-2
Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores
1SiveraG
14N. TenagliaD
2N. ValentiniD
17JonnyD
7Angel PérezM
4Denis SuárezM
8Antonio BlancoM
19Pablo IbáñezM
21A. RebbachM
11Toni MartínezF
15L. BoyéF
Atletico Madrid4-4-2
Coach: D. Simeone
13J. OblakG
14Marcos LlorenteD
21C. RomeroD
24Robin Le NormandD
22Álex GrimaldoD
6KokeM
5J. CardosoM
20G. SimeoneM
8Pablo BarriosM
11A. LookmanM
15J. DavidF
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Alavés vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid won 2–1.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Atletico Madrid was the favourite at 54% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Alavés 21%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 54%).
