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Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad

Sunday, November 1, 2026

Athletic Bilbao

48%

Draw

26%

Real Sociedad

26%

Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).

Athletic Bilbao

2 — 1

Real Sociedad

Athletic Bilbao wins

How the markets called it

Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Athletic Bilbao.

Source	Favourite	Result %Chance given to the result	Verdict
PolymarketFavourite: Athletic Bilbao	Athletic Bilbao	48%	✓ Favourite won Won
KalshiFavourite: Athletic Bilbao	Athletic Bilbao	48%	✓ Favourite won Won
Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Athletic Bilbao	Athletic Bilbao	48%	✓ Favourite won Won

Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price

Platform	1Athletic Bilbao	XDraw	2Real Sociedad
Polymarket	2.09	3.83	3.83
Kalshi	2.08	3.92	3.78
Bookmakers (fair, margin removed)	2.10	3.80	3.85

Sportsbook Odds21 books

= best

Bookmaker	1Athletic Bilbao	XDraw	2Real Sociedad
Betfair	2.08	3.75	3.85
1xBet	2.07	3.75	3.75
Matchbook	2.08	3.75	3.85
Unibet (NL)	2.04	3.75	3.75
Unibet (SE)	2.05	3.75	3.75
Pinnacle	2.04	3.69	3.79
William Hill	2.00	3.50	3.60
Marathon	2.04	3.70	3.70
BetOnline	2.00	3.68	3.80
Betclic	1.90	3.55	3.55
Betsson	2.00	3.55	3.65
Codere	2.01	3.65	3.60
Coolbet	2.03	3.65	3.80
Everygame	2.00	3.50	3.65
LeoVegas	1.95	3.45	3.45
NordicBet	2.00	3.50	3.65
PMU	1.92	3.40	3.40
Tipico	1.97	3.60	3.60
Unibet (FR)	1.88	3.50	3.50
Winamax (DE)	1.92	3.60	3.60
Winamax (FR)	1.88	3.45	3.50
Fair odds (average of 21, margin removed)	2.10	3.79	3.85