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Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Sunday, October 25, 2026

Barcelona

61%

Draw

14%

Real Madrid

25%

Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).

Barcelona

1 — 2

Real Madrid

Real Madrid wins

How the markets called it

Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Real Madrid.

Source	Favourite	Result %Chance given to the result	Verdict
PolymarketFavourite: Barcelona	Barcelona	24%	✗ Upset
KalshiFavourite: Barcelona	Barcelona	25%	✗ Upset
Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Barcelona	Barcelona	24%	✗ Upset

Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price

Platform	1Barcelona	XDraw	2Real Madrid
Polymarket	1.63	6.93	4.10
Kalshi	1.63	7.22	4.04
Bookmakers (fair, margin removed)	1.66	6.23	4.24

Sportsbook Odds21 books

= best

Bookmaker	1Barcelona	XDraw	2Real Madrid
Betfair	1.62	6.60	4.20
1xBet	1.61	5.93	4.39
Coolbet	1.62	5.95	4.15
Matchbook	1.62	6.60	4.20
Unibet (SE)	1.62	5.80	4.20
Pinnacle	1.60	6.32	3.99
William Hill	1.55	5.80	4.00
Marathon	1.59	5.85	4.33
BetOnline	1.58	6.40	4.05
Betclic	1.52	5.75	3.70
Betsson	1.55	5.45	4.30
Codere	1.59	5.80	4.00
Everygame	1.55	6.00	4.00
LeoVegas	1.55	5.30	3.90
NordicBet	1.55	5.55	4.20
PMU	1.53	5.10	3.80
Tipico	1.52	6.50	4.00
Unibet (FR)	1.52	5.80	3.70
Unibet (NL)	1.60	5.80	4.20
Winamax (DE)	1.54	6.25	3.70
Winamax (FR)	1.52	5.90	3.55
Fair odds (average of 21, margin removed)	1.66	6.23	4.24