Málaga
29%
Draw
27%
Real Sociedad
45%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Málaga
2 — 5
Real SociedadReal Sociedad wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Real Sociedad.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Real Sociedad | Real Sociedad | 45% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Real Sociedad | Real Sociedad | 45% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Real Sociedad | Real Sociedad | 43% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Málaga | XDraw | 2Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3.49 | 3.75 | 2.24 |
| Kalshi | 3.48 | 3.74 | 2.24 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 3.31 | 3.72 | 2.33 |
Málaga win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
MálagaReal Sociedad
Jan 7, 24
Malaga
0-1
Real SociedadApr 22, 18
Malaga
2-0
Real SociedadDec 10, 17
Real Sociedad
0-2
MalagaMay 14, 17
Real Sociedad
2-2
MalagaJan 16, 17
Malaga
0-2
Real SociedadFeb 27, 16
Real Sociedad
1-1
MalagaOct 3, 15
Malaga
3-1
Real SociedadApr 4, 15
Malaga
1-1
Real SociedadLineups
Malaga4-4-2
Coach: Funes
1Alfonso HerreroG
31RafitaD
20Fernando CaleroD
15Ángel RecioD
12José SalinasD
10David LarrubiaM
23Izan MerinoM
8Carlos DotorM
18Pablo MartínezM
21Adrián Niño HerediaF
9ChupeF
Real Sociedad4-4-2
Coach: P. Matarazzo
1Álex RemiroG
22Héctor FortD
6Jon MartínD
19M. SarrD
3Aihen MuñozD
14T. KuboM
4Jon GorrotxategiM
18Carlos SolerM
7BarrenetxeaM
10Mikel OyarzabalF
9O. ÓskarssonF
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Málaga vs Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad won 5–2.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Real Sociedad was the favourite at 45% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Málaga 29%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad 45%).
