Real Madrid
78%
Draw
14%
Sevilla
9%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Real Madrid
4 — 1
SevillaReal Madrid wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Real Madrid.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 78% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 77% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 77% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Real Madrid | XDraw | 2Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.28 | 7.45 | 11.82 |
| Kalshi | 1.29 | 7.28 | 11.34 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 1.29 | 7.15 | 11.51 |
Real Madrid win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
Real MadridSevilla
May 17, 26
Sevilla
0-1
Real MadridDec 20, 25
Real Madrid
2-0
SevillaMay 18, 25
Sevilla
0-2
Real MadridDec 22, 24
Real Madrid
4-2
SevillaFeb 25, 24
Real Madrid
1-0
SevillaOct 21, 23
Sevilla
1-1
Real MadridMay 27, 23
Sevilla
1-2
Real MadridOct 22, 22
Real Madrid
3-1
SevillaFrequently Asked Questions
Who won Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Real Madrid won 4–1.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Real Madrid was the favourite at 78% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Real Madrid 78%, draw 14%, Sevilla 9%).
