Real Madrid
72%
Draw
17%
Villarreal
12%
Prediction-market closing prices (Polymarket and Kalshi average).
Real Madrid
1 — 0
VillarrealReal Madrid wins
How the markets called it
Closing prices, last snapshot before kick-off. Result: Real Madrid.
| Source | Favourite | Result %Chance given to the result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketFavourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 72% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
 KalshiFavourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 72% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
| Bookmakers (consensus)Favourite: Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 71% | ✓ Favourite won Won |
Prediction markets vs bookmakers — closing odds= cheaper price
| Platform | 1Real Madrid | XDraw | 2Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.39 | 6.03 | 8.65 |
| Kalshi | 1.40 | 5.91 | 8.74 |
| Bookmakers (fair, margin removed) | 1.42 | 6.08 | 7.76 |
Real Madrid win probability over time
Polymarket and Kalshi prices against the bookmaker consensus, up to kick-off.
Head to HeadLast 8 meetings
Real MadridVillarreal
Jan 24, 26
Villarreal
0-2
Real MadridOct 4, 25
Real Madrid
3-1
VillarrealMar 15, 25
Villarreal
1-2
Real MadridOct 5, 24
Real Madrid
2-0
VillarrealMay 19, 24
Villarreal
4-4
Real MadridDec 17, 23
Real Madrid
4-1
VillarrealApr 8, 23
Real Madrid
2-3
VillarrealJan 19, 23
Villarreal
2-3
Real MadridFrequently Asked Questions
Who won Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Real Madrid won 1–0.
Who was the favourite before kick-off?
Real Madrid was the favourite at 72% on Polymarket and Kalshi (closing prices: Real Madrid 72%, draw 17%, Villarreal 12%).
